Sahelexit: The Economic and Food Security Impact of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger Leaving ECOWAS

On January 29, 2025, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) lost three of its founding members: Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Together, these countries represented 16% of ECOWAS’s total population of 424 million and accounted for 7% of its economy.

Some commentators have referred to this departure as “Sahelexit.” The decision to leave ECOWAS was made by the military leaders of the three countries and is set to take effect legally. In response to their exit, they have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des États du Sahel, AES), a mutual defense and security pact formalized through the Liptako Gourma Charter in 2023.

The departure was prompted by the military leaders’ coups against democratically elected governments: Mali in 2021, Burkina Faso in 2022, and Niger in 2023. The ECOWAS Democracy and Governance Protocol prohibits unconstitutional changes of government, leading the regional body to impose economic, financial, and travel sanctions on each country after these coups.

Although food was exempt from the sanctions, the resulting increase in transport times and logistical challenges contributed to significant food price inflation in the region. For example, in Niger, the average market price of rice rose by 38% between July 2023—when the sanctions were first imposed—and February 2024, when they were lifted.

The remaining ECOWAS member states were also adversely affected. Benin experienced a dramatic drop in revenue at the port of Cotonou, the primary transit point for goods going into Niger. Similarly, the sanctions on Mali severely impacted revenue generation at the port of Dakar in neighboring Senegal.

Although all sanctions were lifted in February 2024, the damage had already been done, leading the three countries to prepare for their departure from ECOWAS.

ECOWAS has allowed these three states a transition period until July 2025 in case they reconsider their decision to leave. However, the leaders of the Alliance of Sahel States have stated that their decision is irreversible.

This exit from Africa’s largest political and economic union poses a threat to the flow of goods, services, and people. As a political economist focusing on agriculture and nutrition policy in much of Africa, I am concerned that these developments will have serious consequences for food security in a region where nearly 17 million children under five are already acutely malnourished.

Currently, the cost of a daily nutritious diet in the three Sahel alliance countries is 110% higher than the daily minimum wage in the West African region. These countries are also among the world’s hunger hotspots, with 7.5 million of their population classified as being in crisis, emergency, or famine conditions as of early 2025.

The exit will also threaten regional cooperation on conflict resolution, as insurgent attacks have begun to spread further south in the Sahel region. This situation will reduce access to safe, affordable food and deter investments in agro-processing.